Or: What to expect when you’re expecting artificial superintelligence
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A note from Alan
I’m now in my fifth decade of watching most of humanity shrink away from intelligence. It seems that there’s been a visceral fear of smarts since the dawn of time, perhaps increasing after the first IQ test was developed 120 years ago.
Following research in AI and psychology, my post-graduate work focused on gifted education and spirituality, leaning on pioneers like Professor Leta Hollingworth (the namesake of my Leta AI project using the 2020 GPT-3 model) and Professor Miraca Gross. Working with many of the world’s most visible prodigies, I was (and continue to be) endlessly fascinated by the ‘auxiliary’ effects of high intelligence. Effects like increased moral sensitivity, an advanced sense of humor, and so much more.
After achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI, a machine operating at the level of a median human), we are poised to rapidly leap through the singularity and artificial superintelligence (ASI): a system whose intelligence surpasses that of the brightest and most gifted human minds.
In an ideal world, ASI’s milestones would be visible instantly. But we live here on Earth, with all our imperfections. Here are the first 50 things I’m looking forward to; my favourite upcoming ASI milestones. It is not exhaustive, I’ve left out animal translation and immortality and many other things. It was designed as just one lens through which to view the ASI milestones. It’s likely that they’ll be checked off differently to the order shown here, and certainly with some new ones that my unaugmented human brain can’t yet imagine…
It will take some time to reach each of these ASI milestones, but technology won’t be the limiting factor. Instead, watch many leaders scream ‘Who moved my Cheese?‘ as this brief period of turmoil unfolds, even as we evolve to our unimaginably utopic world.
Join me here and in my bestselling analysis The Memo as we check the boxes of unfolding superintelligence.
All my best,
November 2024
Image generated by AI for this analysis (Imagen 3). Image generated in a few seconds, on 10 November 2024, text prompt by Alan D. Thompson via Imagen 3: ‘ASI checklist, flatui large icon showing sheet of blank curved dropdown menus and RAG checkboxes, pastel colors on light background, simple’
Legal archive (Nov/2024): https://web.archive.org/web/20241112202827/https://lifearchitect.ai/asi/
Checklist text for indexing only
1. Recursive hardware self-improvement achieved
2. Recursive code self-optimization achieved
3. First major simulation of a suggested improvement; convinces majority of humans
4. First major new mathematical proof
5. First major mathematical conjecture resolved
6. First new discovery (i.e. a new theoretical concept)
7. First new physical invention (i.e. a new tool)
8. First new element added to the period table
9. Novel computing materials developed (i.e. beyond silicon)
10. First 1M humans receiving personalized education from AI (no human assistance)
11. First commercial bi-directional brain-machine interface (BMI) for enhanced cognition
12. First mental health condition resolved
13. Mental wellness: Majority of mental conditions and disorders resolved
14. Majority of physical conditions able to be resolved by AI
15. First 100M fully autonomous surgeries performed by AI (no human assistance)
16. Optimized biology at birth becomes standard (1M+ people)
17. First new type of energy discovered
18. First new type of energy harnessed
19. First new type of energy storage
20. Energy production and storage exceeds energy consumption (Earth)
21. New and previously unrecognizable type of transport developed
PHASE 2: GOVERNANCE AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION
22. AI-run company reaches US$1B valuation
23. AI-run company reaches US$1T valuation
24. First region with universal basic income or UBI-equivalent available for all
25. First country with UBI-equivalent available for all
26. Jobs become optional for practically all humans
27. Traditional economics surpassed; money deflates in value
28. First region primarily governed by AI
29. First country primarily governed by AI
30. Geographical/legal borders are non-existent
31. Crime eliminated (linked to mental wellness + UBI)
32. Integrated international governance by AI
PHASE 3: PHYSICAL WORLD INTEGRATION
33. 1M fully autonomous humanoids in the workplace
34. 1M fully autonomous humanoids in the home
35. 1B fully autonomous humanoids in the home
36. First commercial full dive virtual reality equivalent
37. Waste management optimized; no more trash
38. Environmental issues resolved and environment optimized
39. Fully autonomous cars standard; humans banned from driving
40. Housing optimized; humans no longer want to buy houses
41. BMIs allow humans to ‘telepathically’ communicate with each other
42. BMIs allow humans to have a 1,000+ IQ equivalent (compared with 2024)
43. BMI adoption reaches 1M users
44. BMI adoption reaches 1B users
45. New state of matter engineered
46. First planet other than Earth optimized/terraformed
47. First planet other than Earth colonized
48. All planets in solar system utilized
49. Faster-than-light travel developed
50. Life satisfaction increases from 4/10 to 10/10 equiv (SWL, OECD Better Life, World Happiness) for majority
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Dr Alan D. Thompson is an AI expert and consultant, advising Fortune 500s and governments on post-2020 large language models. His work on artificial intelligence has been featured at NYU, with Microsoft AI and Google AI teams, at the University of Oxford’s 2021 debate on AI Ethics, and in the Leta AI (GPT-3) experiments viewed more than 4.5 million times. A contributor to the fields of human intelligence and peak performance, he has held positions as chairman for Mensa International, consultant to GE and Warner Bros, and memberships with the IEEE and IET. Technical highlights.This page last updated: 13/Nov/2024. https://lifearchitect.ai/asi/↑