Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI

Last update: Mar/2023

Milestones & justifications (most recent at top)


Date Summary Links
Mar/2023 xx%: Microsoft introduces (‘We illustrate how TaskMatrix.AI can perform tasks in the physical world by [LLMs] interacting with robots and IoT devices… All these cases have been implemented in practice and will be supported by the online system of TaskMatrix.AI, which will be released soon… TaskMatrix.AI can help users to interact with the real world by instructing robots and IoT devices. MCFM can understand the environment with camera API, and transform user instructions to action APIs provided by robots and IoT devices. TaskMatrix.AI can facilitate the handling of physical work with the assistance of robots and the construction of smart homes by connecting IoT devices…’). Microsoft
Mar/2023 48%: OpenAI introduces GPT-4, Microsoft research on record that GPT-4 is ‘early AGI’ (‘Given the breadth and depth of GPT-4’s capabilities, we believe that it could reasonably be viewed as an early (yet still incomplete) version of an artificial general intelligence (AGI) system.’).
Microsoft’s deleted original title of the paper was ‘First Contact With an AGI System’.
Note that LLMs are still not embodied, and this countdown requires physical embodiment to get to 60%.
Microsoft Research
Mar/2023 42%: Google introduces PaLM-E 562B (PaLM-Embodied. ‘PaLM-E can successfully plan over multiple stages based on visual and language input… successfully plan a long-horizon task…’). Google
Feb/2023 41%: Microsoft used ChatGPT in robots, it self-improved (‘we were impressed by ChatGPT’s ability to make localized code improvements using only language feedback.’). Microsoft
Dec/2022 39%: Anthropic RL-CAI 52B trained by Reinforcement Learning from AI Feedback (RLAIF) (‘we have moved further away from reliance on human supervision, and closer to the possibility of a self-supervised approach to alignment’)., Anthropic paper (PDF)
Jul/2022 39%: NVIDIA’s Hopper (H100) circuits designed by AI (‘The latest NVIDIA Hopper GPU architecture has nearly 13,000 instances of AI-designed circuits’)., NVIDIA
May/2022 39%: DeepMind Gato is the first generalist agent, that can “play Atari, caption images, chat, stack blocks with a real robot arm, and much more”. Watch Alan’s video about Gato.
Jun/2021 31% Google’s TPUv4 circuits designed by AI (‘allowing chip design to be performed by artificial agents with more experience than any human designer. Our method was used to design the next generation of Google’s artificial intelligence (AI) accelerators, and has the potential to save thousands of hours of human effort for each new generation. Finally, we believe that more powerful AI-designed hardware will fuel advances in AI, creating a symbiotic relationship between the two fields’)., Nature, Venturebeat
Nov/2020 30%: Connor Leahy, co-founder of EleutherAI, re-creator of GPT-2, creator of GPT-J & GPT-NeoX-20B, said about OpenAI GPT-3: “I think GPT-3 is artificial general intelligence, AGI. I think GPT-3 is as intelligent as a human. And I think that it is probably more intelligent than a human in a restricted way… in many ways it is more purely intelligent than humans are. I think humans are approximating what GPT-3 is doing, not vice versa.” Watch the video (timecode)
Aug/2017 20%: Google Transformer leads to big changes for search, translation, and language models. Read the launch in plain English.

Next milestones

– Around 50%: HHH: Helpful, honest, harmless as articulated by Anthropic, with a focus on groundedness and truthfulness.

– Around 60%: Physical embodiment backed by a large language model. The AI is autonomous, and can move and manipulate. Current options include:

– Around 80%: Passes Steve Wozniak’s test of AGI: can walk into a strange house, navigate available tools, and make a cup of coffee from scratch (video with timecode).

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Dr Alan D. Thompson is an AI expert and consultant, advising Fortune 500s and governments on post-2020 large language models. His work on artificial intelligence has been featured at NYU, with Microsoft AI and Google AI teams, at the University of Oxford’s 2021 debate on AI Ethics, and in the Leta AI (GPT-3) experiments viewed more than 2.5 million times. A contributor to the fields of human intelligence and peak performance, he has held positions as chairman for Mensa International, consultant to GE and Warner Bros, and memberships with the IEEE and IET. He is open to consulting and advisory on major AI projects with intergovernmental organizations and enterprise.

This page last updated: 1/Apr/2023.