Alan’s conservative countdown to AGI

Last update: Jun/2022

Milestones & justifications

20%: In August 2017, Google Transformer leads to big changes for search, translation, and language models. Read the launch in plain English.

30%: In November 2020, Connor Leahy, co-founder of EleutherAI, re-creator of GPT-2, creator of GPT-J & GPT-NeoX-20B, said about OpenAI GPT-3: “I think GPT-3 is artificial general intelligence, AGI. I think GPT-3 is as intelligent as a human. And I think that it is probably more intelligent than a human in a restricted way… in many ways it is more purely intelligent than humans are. I think humans are approximating what GPT-3 is doing, not vice versa.” Watch the video (timecode).

39%: In May 2022, DeepMind Gato is the first generalist agent, that can “play Atari, caption images, chat, stack blocks with a real robot arm, and much more”. Watch Alan’s video about Gato.

Next milestones

– Around 50%: HHH: Helpful, honest, harmless as articulated by Anthropic, with a focus on groundedness and truthfulness.
– Around 60%: Physical embodiment. The AI is autonomous, and can move and manipulate (as shown by Google Robots in Apr/2022, or more thoroughly in Tesla Optimus designs or similar).
– Around 80%: Passes Steve Wozniak’s test of AGI: can walk into a strange house, navigate available tools, and make a cup of coffee from scratch (video with timecode).

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Dr Alan D. Thompson is an AI expert and consultant, advising Fortune 500s and governments on post-2020 large language models. His work on artificial intelligence has been featured at NYU, with Microsoft AI and Google AI teams, at the University of Oxford’s 2021 debate on AI Ethics, and in the Leta AI (GPT-3) experiments viewed more than 2.5 million times. A contributor to the fields of human intelligence and peak performance, he has held positions as chairman for Mensa International, consultant to GE and Warner Bros, and memberships with the IEEE and IET. He is open to consulting and advisory on major AI projects with intergovernmental organizations and enterprise.

This page last updated: 10/Jun/2022.