Background
In general, my adoption of technologies and advances from ‘current state’ to ‘future state’ have averaged seven years ahead of mainstream adoption. This is comparable to (but not as good as!) predictions by futurists like Ray Kurzweil and Bill Gates. This is a long-term repository of my previous predictions, and current predictions.
| Technology | Notes | Year launched | My adoption | Popular: adopted by >1% of world population |
Delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internet | Mosaic browser | 1969 | 1995 | 1998 | 3 years ahead |
| Got in trouble with my very first email | 1969 | 1995 | 1998 | 3 years ahead | |
| Apple laptops | Beginning with the Powerbook, with upgrades every year or two | 2001 | 2003 | 2010 | 7 years ahead |
| Gmail | First batch of invites, 2004 | 2004 | 2004 | 2010 | 6 years ahead |
| Hybrid electric vehicle | Purchased the Toyota Prius, technology has been emulated by others | 2001 (Aus) | 2004 | 2024? | 20 years ahead |
| Invitation from Biz Stone. Original 3-character handle stolen | 2006 | 2006 | 2011 | 5 years ahead | |
| Invitation | 2006 (public) | 2007 | 2008 | 1 year ahead | |
| Bitcoin | Bought at $10 each, worth $63,729.50 each at peak | 2008 | 2008 | 2022? | 14 years ahead |
| Tesla | Sat in/tested the Tesla in Arizona | 2003 | 2013 | 2024? | 11 years ahead |
| VR (wired) | The Oculus Rift DK1 | 2013 | 2013 | 2018 | 5 years ahead |
| VR (mobile) | The Samsung Gear VR | 2015 | 2015 | 2018 | 3 years ahead |
| Average: 7 years ahead | |||||
Predictions
These predictions are made by Alan D. Thompson on 27/February/2020, and a legal archive has been made at archive.org.
Medical: Male intactness at birth in all first world countries by 2027. Systematic criminal mutilation and assault at birth (circumcision) banned by law. Retroactive sentencing and jail time for offenders would be an interesting consideration, in much the same way as new laws for certain movements in the mid 2010s have had retroactive penalties applied to offenders.
Brain: neural lace (brain mesh) in some of the population by 2027, as standard by 2030.
Food: canola (rapeseed) products including canola oil, found to be harmful by 2029.
Vehicles: no ownership (just-in-time hire only) in all first world countries by 2029. ‘Call to me’ (smart summon) of vehicle-as-a-service (VaaS) as standard. 50/50 driver/driverless by 2029.
Medical: selective traits pre-conception, conception, and during pregnancy by 2032. In other words, parents can upgrade the future child’s intelligence, features, and other genetic traits.